Weekly Cotton Market Update – Week 4, 2026

CCI starts 2025–26 sales as prices peak:
CCI began selling 2025–26 cotton as prices moved above ₹56,000 per candy (356 kg), selling ~1.14 lakh bales on day one (mills ~61,000; traders ~51,600). CCI’s 29 mm sale price was ₹56,300–57,300 per candy; it had procured ~83 lakh bales, while CAI revised pressing to 317.00 lakh bales with 122.59 lakh bales surplus and 50.00 lakh bales imports (31.00 lakh arrived by Dec 31). With the duty-exemption window ending on December 31 and cottonseed prices firm, CCI’s releases are landing as mills chase raw cotton at seasonal highs. This suggests CCI sales could act as a near-term price brake for domestic cotton.

CCI pays dividend, doubles down on traceability:
CCI presented a ₹8.89 crore dividend for FY2024–25 and reported ₹20,009 crore turnover. PIB said CCI produced 1.51 lakh bales of Kasturi Cotton Bharat out of 1.58 lakh (nearly 97%), expanded to 571 procurement centres (from 508), and has 46 lakh farmers on Kapas Kisan, plus 100% bale traceability via blockchain/QR. For mills and brands, scale procurement plus traceable cotton bales can reduce sourcing friction and audit risk. This suggests CCI is positioning to anchor India’s certified, trackable cotton supply at scale.

India-EU deal hopes lift Tiruppur sentiment:
Business Standard says an India–EU trade deal is expected to be sealed soon and concluded on January 27 at the India–EU Summit, with exporters seeking zero-duty EU access to compete with Bangladesh’s duty-free position under EBA. Tiruppur ships about $1.74 billion to the EU (22.9% of India’s EU textile and apparel exports) and reports a ₹15,000 crore loss in 2025 with production cuts up to 30% across units. If EU duties drop, apparel orders can swing toward Indian hubs and pull through more cotton yarn and fabric demand. This suggests EU market access could become a key lever for India’s cotton-to-garment competitiveness versus Bangladesh.

European brands scout India amid Bangladesh disruption:
Textile Insights says European brands, including Marks & Spencer, Primark and Nex,t are scouting India more actively amid Bangladesh’s political upheaval, with more factory visits, technical audits and supplier evaluations in Tirupur. It says the EU was 19.6% of India’s 2024–25 textile and apparel exports (UK 5.4%) and claims an India–EU FTA on January 27 will cut duties, while agriculture is excluded, and an India–UK FTA gives 99% duty-free access. More EU/UK sourcing interest in India would support downstream spinning and weaving pull, lifting demand for cotton lint and yarn. This suggests cotton-linked order flows could skew toward Indian suppliers if Bangladesh disruptions persist.

OEKO-TEX and TextileGenesis digitize organic cotton TCs:
Textile Insights says OEKO-TEX partnered with TextileGenesis to digitize Transaction Certificates for organic cotton supply chains using TextileGenesis’ platform and token-based Fibercoin. It reports OEKO-TEX ORGANIC COTTON certifications rose 381% year on year as of December 31, 2025, and a March–August 2025 pilot in India and Bangladesh involved 11 participants and validated 19 certified digital transactions. Digital chain-of-custody raises the bar on proof for organic cotton claims and can reduce paper-based fraud risk. This suggests suppliers without digital traceability may face tighter gatekeeping for the organic cotton business.

Bangladesh mills warn of shutdown over duty-free yarn:
India Today says Bangladesh textile millers warn of a nationwide shutdown from February 1, 2026 unless the government withdraws the duty-free import facility for yarn by the end of January. BTMA cites nearly $2 billion losses in the past three to four months, capacity reduced by nearly 50% in many units, unsold stocks over Tk 12,000 crore, 50+ mill closures, and 2025 yarn imports of ~70 crore kg worth ~$2 billion (78% from India). Any curbs on imported 10–30 count cotton yarn would reshuffle Bangladesh’s spinning economics and India’s yarn trade flow. This suggests cotton yarn demand and pricing could turn more volatile across India and Bangladesh in Q1 2026.

Brazil eyes lower output, higher stocks and exports:
Abrapa’s first 2025/26 outlook (via Smart Info India) projects Brazil lint output down 9.9% to 3.829 million tonnes, with planted area down 5.5% to 2.052 million hectares and yield down 4.7% to 1,866 kg/ha. It expects beginning stocks up 65.7% to 835,000 tonnes, total supply up 17.6% to 4.76 million tonnes, and exports up 13% to 3.2 million tonnes; planting was ~18% by January 8, 2026. Even with lower production, higher stocks plus bigger exports keep Brazil a heavyweight in global cotton availability. This suggests export-led Brazilian supply could limit upside in world cotton prices despite the output dip.